Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams Faces an Unconventional Re-Election Battle

Mayor Eric Adams, elected in 2021 as a Democrat, is now seeking re-election as an independent candidate after a turbulent term. His administration was rocked by a federal bribery indictment in 2024, which was later dismissed following a change in presidential leadership1. Despite the legal reprieve, Adams dropped out of the Democratic primary and launched an independent campaign under new ballot lines like “EndAntiSemitism” and “Safe&Affordable.” His platform emphasizes public safety, affordable housing, and working-class representation, particularly among Black and Latino communities. Adams has raised over $6.4 million in private funds but was denied public matching funds 1. His approval ratings remain low, with a Marist poll showing only 26% support in late 2024. Still, he retains backing from uniformed workers’ unions and influential donors like Bill Ackman. Adams is positioning himself as a pragmatic leader, but his independent run faces steep challenges in a city leaning increasingly progressive.

Zohran Mamdani: The Democratic Nominee Shaking Up the Establishment

Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist and state assembly member, stunned political observers by winning the Democratic primary against former Governor Andrew Cuomo1. Mamdani’s campaign focused on housing justice, police reform, and climate action, resonating with younger and more progressive voters. His grassroots strategy, bolstered by endorsements from leftist organizations and local activists, helped him overcome Cuomo’s establishment backing. Mamdani’s rise reflects a broader shift in New York City politics, where progressive candidates are gaining traction amid dissatisfaction with centrist leadership. He’s now adjusting to the national spotlight, with media attention intensifying and fundraising efforts expanding. Mamdani’s challenge will be to broaden his appeal beyond his activist base to moderate and older voters. His campaign is emphasizing transparency, equity, and community engagement. With the Democratic Party’s infrastructure behind him, Mamdani enters the general election as a formidable contender, especially in Manhattan, where progressive values dominate.

Andrew Cuomo’s Independent Comeback Bid

After losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani, former Governor Andrew Cuomo re-entered the race as an independent candidate under the “Fight and Deliver” banner 2. Cuomo’s campaign is built on his experience and centrist policies, including public safety, wage increases, and moderate tax relief. He has secured endorsements from political heavyweights like Bill Clinton and Michael Bloomberg and raised over $1.5 million in just two weeks 2. However, Cuomo’s legacy remains clouded by past scandals, including sexual harassment allegations and controversial COVID-19 nursing home policies. Critics accuse him of avoiding tough questions and lacking accountability. Despite these challenges, Cuomo appeals to voters seeking stability and executive experience. His independent run complicates the race, potentially drawing votes from both Adams and Mamdani. Cuomo’s strategy hinges on mobilizing moderate Democrats and independents disillusioned with the current administration and wary of progressive policies.

Curtis Sliwa and the Republican Wild Card

Curtis Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels and a perennial Republican candidate, remains in the race despite pressure to drop out1. Known for his eccentric style and tough-on-crime rhetoric, Sliwa appeals to a niche conservative base in a predominantly liberal city. His campaign focuses on public safety, anti-corruption, and small business support. While Sliwa lacks the fundraising power and institutional backing of his rivals, he maintains a loyal following and uses media appearances to amplify his message. His presence in the race could siphon votes from Adams, especially among voters prioritizing law-and-order policies. However, Sliwa’s chances of winning are slim, given the city’s political demographics. His role may be more disruptive than decisive, potentially influencing the margins in a tight race. Sliwa’s persistence underscores the ideological diversity of the mayoral field and the unpredictable nature of this year’s election.

Voter Sentiment and Election Forecast

As the November 4 election approaches, voter sentiment in Manhattan is sharply divided. Mamdani enjoys strong support among progressives, younger voters, and grassroots organizations, particularly in neighborhoods like Harlem and the Lower East Side. Adams retains backing from working-class communities and business leaders, though his approval ratings remain low. Cuomo’s appeal lies with moderate and older voters seeking a return to traditional governance. Sliwa’s base is small but vocal. Polls suggest Mamdani leads in Manhattan, with Adams and Cuomo battling for second place. The race’s unpredictability stems from Adams and Cuomo running as independents, fracturing the traditional party lines. If Mamdani can maintain momentum and expand his coalition, he is likely to win the mayoral contest. However, a late surge from Cuomo or Adams could shift the dynamics. For now, Mamdani appears to be the frontrunner in a historic and ideologically diverse election1.  

Adams Fights for Survival as Independent After Democratic Primary Loss

Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams faces the political battle of his life as he seeks re-election as an independent candidate after choosing not to compete in the Democratic primary. Adams, who was elected in 2021 as a Democrat, is now running as an independent after incumbent mayor Eric Adams did not run in the primary, instead choosing to compete for re-election as an independent in the general contest. The former police captain's decision to abandon his party affiliation comes amid ongoing federal investigations and declining approval ratings that have plagued his administration. Adams built his political career on a law-and-order platform, rising through the ranks as a Brooklyn borough president before capturing City Hall with promises to reduce crime and improve quality of life. However, his tenure has been marked by controversies over his administration's handling of the migrant crisis, budget cuts to city services, and questions about his leadership style. His ideological stance in brief: Conservative, pro-business Democrat who is now running as an independent candidate. Recent polling shows Adams struggling to maintain relevance in the race, with some surveys placing him as low as 13% support among voters, a dramatic fall from his 2021 victory when he won as a moderate alternative to progressive candidates.

Mamdani Emerges as Progressive Standard-Bearer After Primary Victory

State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has emerged as the unlikely Democratic nominee after a stunning primary victory that reshaped New York City's political landscape. Mamdani beat Cuomo in the primary by 12% after ranked-choice voting tabulation the week after the election, though the former governor had called Mamdani to concede less than two hours after polls closed as it became clear the evening was headed toward a blowout. The 32-year-old Queens legislator, who describes himself as a democratic socialist, represents a generational shift in the party's leadership and a move toward more progressive policies. Mamdani's path to the nomination began with his 2020 election to the Assembly, where he quickly established himself as a vocal advocate for tenant rights, healthcare reform, and social justice issues. His campaign gained momentum by building a coalition of young voters, working-class families, and progressive activists who felt alienated by the city's moderate establishment. Mamdani leads among voters under 50 with 61%, and holds an edge among white voters (57% to 43%) and college-educated voters (58% to 42%). His primary victory was fueled by a sophisticated ground game that mobilized first-time voters and utilized social media to reach younger demographics traditionally underrepresented in municipal elections.

Cuomo's Complicated Comeback Bid as Independent Candidate

Former Governor Andrew Cuomo's entry into the mayoral race as an independent candidate represents one of the most dramatic political comebacks in recent memory. After resigning from the governorship in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations and controversies over his handling of COVID-19 nursing home deaths, Cuomo has spent the past four years attempting to rehabilitate his image and return to public life. Former New York Gov. Cuomo says he's "in it to win it," but experts say his fight has only just begun. His decision to enter the race came after months of speculation and polling data showing he maintained significant name recognition and support among certain voter demographics. Cuomo's campaign focuses on his executive experience and his role in steering New York through various crises during his three terms as governor. However, his candidacy remains controversial, with many Democratic leaders maintaining their distance due to the circumstances of his resignation. Cuomo was the only candidate in the findings with a net-positive image: 56% favorable to 43% unfavorable. His independent status allows him to appeal to moderate Democrats and some Republicans who may be uncomfortable with both Mamdani's progressive agenda and Adams' embattled administration, positioning himself as the experienced alternative in a chaotic political moment.

Voter Coalition Dynamics and Demographic Divides Shape the Race

The 2025 mayoral election reveals sharp demographic and ideological divisions among New York City voters that could determine the outcome. A July poll by market research company HarrisX shows Mamdani leading a four-man race. The survey of 585 registered New York City voters has Mamdani with 26% of the vote, followed by Cuomo (23%), Sliwa (22%) and Adams (13%). Mamdani's coalition is built primarily on young voters, progressive activists, and working-class communities of color who view his candidacy as a chance to implement transformative policies around housing, healthcare, and economic inequality. His support is particularly strong in gentrifying neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens where residents face displacement pressures. Cuomo's base consists largely of older, more moderate Democrats who remember his governance during the COVID-19 pandemic and view him as a steady hand during turbulent times. His support is strongest in middle-class neighborhoods in Staten Island and parts of Queens and the Bronx where voters prioritize public safety and economic stability over progressive reform. Adams retains some support among business leaders and moderate voters concerned about crime, but his coalition has significantly eroded due to the various scandals surrounding his administration. The racial and economic divisions in voter preferences reflect broader tensions about the city's future direction, with wealthier, whiter neighborhoods showing different priorities than predominantly minority, working-class communities.

November Showdown Likely to Favor Mamdani Despite Uncertain Dynamics

Despite the complexity of a four-way general election race, political analysts increasingly view Zohran Mamdani as the frontrunner heading into November's contest. According to a poll from American Pulse conducted from June 28 to July 1, 2025, Mamdani has 35.2 percent support among New York City likely voters, compared to Cuomo's 29 percent support. Mamdani's advantages include his status as the official Democratic nominee in a heavily Democratic city, his energized grassroots organization, and his ability to turn out younger voters who have historically been underrepresented in municipal elections. His primary victory demonstrated his campaign's organizational strength and ability to navigate the city's ranked-choice voting system effectively. However, the race remains highly competitive due to the presence of multiple strong candidates who could split the anti-Adams vote in unpredictable ways. Cuomo's independent candidacy poses the greatest threat to Mamdani's chances, as the former governor could appeal to moderate Democrats uncomfortable with progressive politics while also attracting some Republican and unaffiliated voters. The outcome will likely depend on voter turnout patterns, with Mamdani needing to replicate his primary success in motivating his base while Cuomo and Adams hope for a more traditional, moderate electorate. For the assumed Democratic nominee, Mamdani, the poll claims he is viewed unfavorably by 48% of voters and favorably by 40%. This suggests that while Mamdani leads in most polling, his path to victory is not guaranteed, and the race could tighten significantly as November approaches and voters become more familiar with all candidates' platforms and backgrounds.